The probability of the revolution in Russia
Now the global crisis and the deteriorating situation of Russians, many social and political movements hope to “awaken the people” for the sake of overthrowing the existing state system. However, at this time the revolution is made impossible. Let’s see.
In Russia there are several major political parties: United Russia, the LDPR, the CPRF, “Fair Russia”. In all different ideologies, but none never take drastic action: Zhirinovsky make loud statements, cursing anyone, but not Putin and Medvedev, Communist Party leader Zyuganov organizes rallies anachronistic “Our country – the USSR,” “fair” does almost nothing makes (a luxury tax – very clever). The so-called opposition from the government of attitude: in the last election in the Moscow City Duma to actually “sent” straight to hell. And no demonstrative withdrawal from the hall did not help. As a result, we see that the main political parties, in fact, are fictitious and never will do nothing contrary to the current leadership.
Another thing – the less-known organizations that have almost no coverage in the media and have no influence on the part of the state. Among the most prominent include DPNI, NBP, “Other Russia”. These parties are ready for more radical action on the statements of their leaders (one of only Russian March, which is negative about the power collected in 2009 over 7000 people). In such organizations take a marginal or highly ideological people. Since these categories of citizens can not be “zombie” mass media, such as the formation of very nervous about the government. Very often, conflicts with law enforcement authorities, the arrests of members (including the leadership – former leader of the Movement Against Illegal Immigration, Alexander Belov, a suspended sentence for inciting ethnic strife), the various prohibitions and restrictions by the authorities. If such a party becomes generally known and is becoming popular, the government paralyzed its operations or eliminate altogether, as with Eduard Limonov, NBP, which had a scandalous reputation before its ban in 2007. In addition, many of these movements did not have enough finances, strength and support among governments. Hence, these parties also can not make a serious large-scale actions, except for certain shares (Russian March Against Illegal Immigration, illegal dispersal of gay activists rally RONS, seizures of buildings NBP, etc.)
Coup in our country, proceeding from the reality of today is almost impossible. Let us remember the story: Since ancient times Russia and the Russian Empire were famous for a very strong and well-trained army. All the people’s armed uprisings, revolts and uprisings of any force it tightly suppressed (Pugachev, Razin, Moscow Uprising). The country is too large, the potential of armed forces is high. In 1917 the situation was radically different. The army and most of the state elite have been mobilized to repel the external enemy, the country’s resources are also aimed at this goal. After his arrest, and the overthrow of Nicholas II began the collapse of governance and the front, before a slight unrest among the rank and became widespread. Understanding the meaning of life and the war was lost, out of the war became the only means of saving the country. But the Provisional Government in time has not taken the necessary policy changes, no matter the conclusion of peace with Germany. As a result, a huge mass of deserters and soldiers of spare parts joined the Bolsheviks, and the crumbling power was swept away. Inconsistency “white” generals in the Civil War and the lack of a state-ideas are not allowed to create against the “Reds” of sufficient strength.
You can see that now a lot of factors that enabled the Bolsheviks to take power, is missing: the army is in a relatively stable (passive, non-political) state, any opposition will be crushed by the police forces, vastly superior to any number of rallies. Revolution “from below” is impossible.
Quite another thing revolution from above, coming from the power itself. Here everything is different, largely because of random factors. For example, in connection with the death or loss of a strong leader, on whom rests the power (as, for example, with Ivan the Terrible), or progressive weakness of the leader and the plot of the approximate (Yeltsin against Gorbachev). It would seem that this scenario is the revolution in Russia is possible. But at the moment among Putin’s inner circle (and he is a real leader) is not observed ardent opponents, and he himself is in perfect health. There is no evidence that he no longer control the power structure, where its authority is still quite high.
The radical regime change “from above” is also still not feasible. Therefore, task of the Russian opposition is to promote the power of their people, and without advertising it. Then 5-10 years can we hope to folding conditions for the coup and a decisive change in policy. In these circumstances, rallies and marches to continue only to support the spirit of political activists and public demonstrations in order to attract new supporters and spread their ideas.
II
One of the most important factors that make it impossible to radical change of power is a phenomenal political and social passivity of the people. In the Russian Empire, the king had absolute authority and considered by people as an infallible leader. He has an almost unlimited capacity to mobilize resources against any rebellion, and the presence of mind has always been able to disclose any conspiracy. Popular unrest was brutally suppressed. Even such large-scale, as the famous uprising Pugachov (or Peasant War 1773-1775g.g.). Pugachev was executed in public, and nothing has changed in the situation of the peasantry. Catherine II issued a decree to rename all the places associated with these events. So Zimoveyskaya village on the Don, where he was born Pugachev, was renamed Potemkin, and the house itself Pugacheva was ordered to burn. Instead of mitigating conditions of the peasants expanded the power of the privileges of the nobility: the powers bestowed upon the noble Tatar and Bashkir princes, whose subjects supported Pugacheva.
No less famous was the uprising of Stepan Razin years 1670-1671. Which is suppressed with unprecedented cruelty to Russia (it was executed more than 10 thousand people). This statement also came to nothing resulted, except for new punitive measures and stricter control of power over his subjects.
Thus, we see that the Russian people from the outset made to follow strict regulations and obedience, not skimping on the harshest measures. Even the large-scale riots had no goals and chances for success. On the contrary, the revolution in Europe and had tremendous success, and a nationwide scale, and actual results. For example, the Great French Revolution or the English bourgeois revolution of the XVII century. That is why modern Europeans are accustomed to assert their rights, and in each case to demand justice, even the most radical methods. Current performance against the current authorities in Europe seized hundreds of thousands of people, and often this pressure from the authorities concede, conducting the necessary reforms.
In the era of the Soviet Union of any large-scale interventions could be no question: the system of denunciations, arrests, repression and political terror for a long time repulsed even the desire to express their views, not to mention what or propaganda. All people with opposing views have been either suppressed or expelled from the country. Disturbances were local in nature – such as Norilsk uprising in 1953, or riot in the anti-submarine ship “Watchdog” in 1975 Such events can easily suppressed, and information about what happened in hiding. With the advent of Gorbachev Gorbachev in 1985 and the beginning of the restructuring of Soviet society was subjected to the first significant reforms. It became possible to openly express their opinions, including those in the media, gradually legalizing private enterprise … However, the economic situation of this has not improved. In recent years, the Soviet Union, despite the high gross production figures, there was a total deficit of essential products and goods. Who came to power, the leaders of the Democrats (most of them were party members) were forced to introduce rationing of distribution (Coupons For tobacco, vodka, home appliances, shoes, etc.) the communist ideals of “light and carefree future” were destroyed, the leadership the country’s discredited. In the republics held a “parade of sovereignties”, there were large-scale national unrest in the Baltics, Transcaucasia. However, in central Russia changes and impending catastrophe were met with overwhelming passivity. The putsch of August 1991 and the storming of the House of Soviets in 1993 provoked some responses from only a few tens of thousands of politically active Muscovites who came to support one side or another (in 1991, Yeltsin and the parliament, led by Rutskoi in 1993). In areas not happen virtually nothing, the population was as if indifferent to the big events and the redistribution of power in their country. In 1991, Congress of Deputies of the USSR just dissolved itself, and the disintegration of the country was met by people with complete indifference. Ubiquitous dissolution of the Soviets in 1993 – popularly elected government – was greeted with indifference the people, the vast majority of the deputies were taking the decision to disband.
During the Yeltsin years, when the promised ‘democrats’ dramatic improvement did not happen, the political activity of the population has increased slightly. This is mainly due not so much an economic disaster, and the media and propaganda, the leading opposition political organizations. Many openly expressed radical defiance of power, arguing that they can make a coup. The popularity of radical ideas was linked to the fact that people around 70 years for the most part believed in the state ideology (communism), but with its demise received nothing in return.
Radicalism for a time covered ideological poverty of the opposition. But confidence in the preaching of his organization gradually fell: to make the promised revolution they could not because of increasing repression. Suppression of the radical opposition contributed to tightening laws. After coming to power, VV Putin has begun a direct elimination of the most radical opposition, an unofficial ban political propaganda on TV, conferring new powers to security forces (FSB, MVD). At rallies and demonstrations was dangerous to come, many of them ended in mass arrests and severe beatings of participants. Thus, the Russian society, the beginning of “perk” in the 1990′s, again subjected to political repression. And again it did not cause any reaction from the general population. People do not want to quarrel with the authorities and are ready to live poorly, but stable “, without expressing their discontent on a neighbor’s kitchen.
III
But now the situation is changing. Political repression in no way can affect the crisis and the apparent deterioration of the material conditions of citizens. Dramatically escalated the public’s attitude to the power structures because of several high-profile crimes “werewolves in epaulettes”. Sensitive to the increase in crime by immigrants (according to Internal Affairs of Moscow 60% of crimes committed by newcomers). The state imposes a massively idea of multiculturalism and tolerance, are completely alien to the majority. The public resonance were the case Ani Beshnovoy (15-year-old schoolgirl was raped and murdered near his home to visitors from Uzbekistan), grouping “Black Hawk Down” (a group of Caucasians, which inflicted serious injuries to two young Muscovites in a subway car, notably, the beating took place under the cries of ” Russian swine! “, but Article 282 of the Criminal Code for inciting ethnic strife as the prosecution did not advance), the murder of an Orthodox priest Daniel Sysoeva for missionary activities among Muslims.
In 2006, there have been developments in Kondopoga, which the authorities tried to silence, and when that failed, called “pogroms against non-indigenous population. It is worth noting that the “riots” involved not the mythical “Russian skinheads, Nazis, and the ordinary people brought tyranny Chechens against the indigenous population. But even so loud accident almost nothing has changed. In contrast, the current government continues to exert pressure on the national-patriotic organizations, squeezing them out of legal policy, and even denial of the usual social activities (eg, the recent ban Slavic Union). It looks fake calls for equality and universal values “.
Such actions of the authorities explained primarily a desire for rapprochement and cooperation with the “tolerant” countries of Europe and the U.S. (political reasons), as well as the acquisition of vast quantities of cheap and marginalized labor force (economic reason). But this is no excuse naplevatelskogo and rigid attitude to the Russian population.
Instead of introducing more stringent measures against the ethnic crime, the population continues to intimidate the so-called “Russian fascism”. With so few ethnic aggression from the Russian side, an increasing number of crimes carried out by “extremist” articles of the Criminal Code. It seems that the current government does not understand the looming threat or deliberately provoke the population.
The collapse of the country, followed by chaos does not need anyone except senior marauders, like those who looted and sold the property of the State in the early 90′s. Only consistent, but decisive change (and not as Gorbachev, torn between the “democratization” and pressure from the Communist Party) would help to resolve such a complicated situation. They can be held, and the country will avoid the chaos and revolution, if the government’s cooperation with the Russian nationalists, the Russian national elite.
The task of the Russian nationalists – to put forward reform of doctrine, to propose ways to overcome the crisis, rather than contribute to it. Only then can one hope for a “revolution from above”, and the development and prosperity of Russia in the future.
Russian mentality combines heroism and humility. If heroism is no career, if humility is used to humiliate people and national pride, but there comes a limit. Russian people are very difficult to “bring”, but if the Russian was disappointed in the power and did not see any attempt by the authorities for justice, then of his hatred is frightening to everyone. And in this case, strict punitive measures against the Russian lead only to exacerbate the situation, as a result – to the social explosion of such force that stop him and bring the situation in a reasonable direction is virtually impossible. If we get to such a “revolution from below”, then go through the blood, self-destruction and destruction of their own country, followed by long and painful recovery period.
History teaches that the “revolution from above” sometimes gives positive results, and the “revolution from below” is always given the dire consequences. Please keep in mind about these lessons and not to wake the sleeping beast in the Russian people, with its terrible and blind force.
About the Author
Jessica Anderson
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